likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Boys High School Competition
3963
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likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby 3963 » Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:40 pm

I'm not a betting man, but it doesn't look likely to me for the following reasons:

-neither herd immunity nor vaccination has been achieved/developed; local municipalities are expecting the shelter in place to go past/be extended past May. This can go on indefinitely.

-schools are talking about a late start (I am in the NCS region of CIF)

-the fundamentals of the game don't work while social distancing.

What are your thoughts?

retiredguy
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby retiredguy » Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:10 pm

I’m sure that you will get several people saying “fall sports will never happen” but my personal hope is that CIF and HS sports wait until at least July 1 to make any decisions.

IpayBar
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby IpayBar » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:39 pm

3963 wrote:I'm not a betting man, but it doesn't look likely to me for the following reasons:

-neither herd immunity nor vaccination has been achieved/developed; local municipalities are expecting the shelter in place to go past/be extended past May. This can go on indefinitely.

-schools are talking about a late start (I am in the NCS region of CIF)

-the fundamentals of the game don't work while social distancing.

What are your thoughts?


Shelter in place going bye bye soon. Already seeing states opening up. New protocols will be in place for sports. The pro sports and college sports are making progress to begin again under new protocols. So I'm optimistic they might open some pools in June and others in July. Perhaps the private schools open first and some school districts open a bit later.

We probably need to adjust and adapt to this new reality. The danger to high risk folks is something we need to tackle a bit differently than the shelter in place model. This current policy will destroy a lot more lives than CV19. As difficult as it might be we need a different approach.

CV19 is dangerous but this current path is absolutely disastrous. I do have elderly parents and they and we must learn to protect those high risk groups. Personally I think new way of living and protecting each other from the spread is required. But life and our hopes/dreams for our future must be protected as well.

SkipShot101
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby SkipShot101 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:58 am

IpayBar wrote:
3963 wrote:I'm not a betting man, but it doesn't look likely to me for the following reasons:

-neither herd immunity nor vaccination has been achieved/developed; local municipalities are expecting the shelter in place to go past/be extended past May. This can go on indefinitely.

-schools are talking about a late start (I am in the NCS region of CIF)

-the fundamentals of the game don't work while social distancing.

What are your thoughts?


Shelter in place going bye bye soon. Already seeing states opening up. New protocols will be in place for sports. The pro sports and college sports are making progress to begin again under new protocols. So I'm optimistic they might open some pools in June and others in July. Perhaps the private schools open first and some school districts open a bit later.

We probably need to adjust and adapt to this new reality. The danger to high risk folks is something we need to tackle a bit differently than the shelter in place model. This current policy will destroy a lot more lives than CV19. As difficult as it might be we need a different approach.

CV19 is dangerous but this current path is absolutely disastrous. I do have elderly parents and they and we must learn to protect those high risk groups. Personally I think new way of living and protecting each other from the spread is required. But life and our hopes/dreams for our future must be protected as well.


Very well said man. Couldn't agree more.

DavisWP
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby DavisWP » Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:48 pm

Dr Fauci now says it's inevitable that the virus is here in Fall & Winter with a chance of being very bad depending on our actions in the lead up. Starting up in August and September is probably the exact kind of decisions he's intimating would lead to a bad Oct-Nov-Dec. It is hard to see a path to HS sports if he is even remotely correct. If there is community spread going on and groups of 10 or more are disallowed, what HS is going to open/keep open their pool? I'd guess even the NFL is 50/50 at this point. A vaccine is the game changer but unlikely by fall, if ever.

Rbpolo0414
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby Rbpolo0414 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:50 pm

Not sure what this means for sports, but the Gov mentioned a possible July start to the school year. He seems motivated to get school open.

sbdad
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby sbdad » Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:50 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI5uPqSE7C4

here is what CIF is saying as of yesterday.

SkipShot101
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby SkipShot101 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:12 pm

sbdad wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yI5uPqSE7C4

here is what CIF is saying as of yesterday.


It's 45 mins. Can u summarize for us? Basically, we having a fall hs wp season or not?

SkipShot101
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby SkipShot101 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:15 pm

DavisWP wrote:Dr Fauci now says it's inevitable that the virus is here in Fall & Winter with a chance of being very bad depending on our actions in the lead up. Starting up in August and September is probably the exact kind of decisions he's intimating would lead to a bad Oct-Nov-Dec. It is hard to see a path to HS sports if he is even remotely correct. If there is community spread going on and groups of 10 or more are disallowed, what HS is going to open/keep open their pool? I'd guess even the NFL is 50/50 at this point. A vaccine is the game changer but unlikely by fall, if ever.


That's called negative fortune telling.
A wise person once told me that if you're going to predict the future, why not predict a good one?

retiredguy
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby retiredguy » Tue Apr 28, 2020 5:43 pm

Thanks for sharing the video -- in summary, we don't know anything yet and no decisions have been made, but contingency plans are being made (later start, possible pause in the middle of season if there is a virus resurgence, maybe moving sports like tennis and golf to the fall).

Again, if you look at the IMHE model it has the last death in California being May 15 as of today. I don't see how you could go 3 full months with no deaths and not have HS sports in the fall. Even if the models are a month off and the last death is June 15, that's 2 full months before HS season starts. While waiting for a vaccine to open society seems foolish to me if the virus slows to a halt over the summer, Pfizer did announce today that they are on track to have millions of vaccines ready by the Fall. They have been working closely with a German Pharma company and it's nice to see the world coming together to provide solutions. Bottom line, my prediction is that there will be school and sports in August even if things look a little different at that time.

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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby oldtimer » Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:09 pm

retiredguy wrote:Again, if you look at the IMHE model it has the last death in California being May 15 as of today. I don't see how you could go 3 full months with no deaths and not have HS sports in the fall. Even if the models are a month off and the last death is June 15, that's 2 full months before HS season starts. While waiting for a vaccine to open society seems foolish to me if the virus slows to a halt over the summer, Pfizer did announce today that they are on track to have millions of vaccines ready by the Fall. They have been working closely with a German Pharma company and it's nice to see the world coming together to provide solutions. Bottom line, my prediction is that there will be school and sports in August even if things look a little different at that time.


Models are great for trying to predict the future, but the reality is that we are still seeing new cases and new fatalities every day in CA, just as with essentially every other state. There were at least 50 deaths reported yesterday in CA, and probably will be a similar number today. The good news is that the rate of infection has been slowing, as has the number of fatalities - but if I were to venture a guess it would be that we are multiple weeks away from no fatalities, and possibly a little longer.

If I read the Governor's message correctly, schools would open first and implement social distancing as much as possible in classrooms, cafeterias, gyms, etc. and probably attempt to keep kids from congregating on campus between classes (good luck with that). The next phase would be to allow sports without spectators, etc. He said the phase allowing schools to open being 'months, rather than weeks, I think, but the phrasing I read made it a little difficult to parse. Given that, I could see athletics being allowed to practice, but also implementing safe measures. For water polo, this would likely mean conditioning and fundamentals, as well as tactical drills where kids keep their distance in lines doing the drills. I could see the recommendation to do no one-on-one (offense and defense at the same time) during this time. Also no games until the phase that allows contests with no spectators. I'd like to hear from someone who read it differently.

Presidio
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby Presidio » Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:40 pm

oldtimer wrote:
retiredguy wrote:Again, if you look at the IMHE model it has the last death in California being May 15 as of today. I don't see how you could go 3 full months with no deaths and not have HS sports in the fall. Even if the models are a month off and the last death is June 15, that's 2 full months before HS season starts. While waiting for a vaccine to open society seems foolish to me if the virus slows to a halt over the summer, Pfizer did announce today that they are on track to have millions of vaccines ready by the Fall. They have been working closely with a German Pharma company and it's nice to see the world coming together to provide solutions. Bottom line, my prediction is that there will be school and sports in August even if things look a little different at that time.


Models are great for trying to predict the future, but the reality is that we are still seeing new cases and new fatalities every day in CA, just as with essentially every other state. There were at least 50 deaths reported yesterday in CA, and probably will be a similar number today. The good news is that the rate of infection has been slowing, as has the number of fatalities - but if I were to venture a guess it would be that we are multiple weeks away from no fatalities, and possibly a little longer.

If I read the Governor's message correctly, schools would open first and implement social distancing as much as possible in classrooms, cafeterias, gyms, etc. and probably attempt to keep kids from congregating on campus between classes (good luck with that). The next phase would be to allow sports without spectators, etc. He said the phase allowing schools to open being 'months, rather than weeks, I think, but the phrasing I read made it a little difficult to parse. Given that, I could see athletics being allowed to practice, but also implementing safe measures. For water polo, this would likely mean conditioning and fundamentals, as well as tactical drills where kids keep their distance in lines doing the drills. I could see the recommendation to do no one-on-one (offense and defense at the same time) during this time. Also no games until the phase that allows contests with no spectators. I'd like to hear from someone who read it differently.


I kinda thought Newsom was sending mixed messages. How can kids go back to school, but yet he says sporting events are a long way off? I have no faith in our school districts to provide adequate social distancing on school property. And I feel sorry for the administrators and teachers that have to implement and enforce it. Wasn’t it two weeks ago that Newsom said we need to attain six things to open back up? Have we, but yet he is already starting to relax his standards. Maybe he is because cities like Santa Monica and LA are projecting budget shortfalls of $172m and $575m with this continued economic lockdown.

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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby oldtimer » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:05 am

There is no doubt that our political leaders are caught between a rock and a hard place. They are having to choose between keeping the population safe, or keeping their standard of living up. One rule of human behavior is that once you have gotten something - whether it be money, freedom, or whatever, it is very difficult to give it up.

On the other hand, national polls seem to suggest that the majority prefer keeping restrictions in place until it is safe. I think what you will see is that, as a general rule, those who have the most also believe they are safest, and therefore are most opposed to the restrictions. Probably because they can afford to have others put themselves at risk on their behalf, and figure they can afford any necessary healthcare - but that's just a suspicion.

The political fallout from this could be quite considerable. If you simplify as much as possible, there are four possible outcomes: Lots of illness but the economy stays strong, Limited illness but the economy tanks, Little illness and the economy stays strong, Lots of illness and the economy tanks. There is only one good outcome of those 4 for our political leaders. The razor's edge, indeed...

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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby CapeFear » Thu May 07, 2020 11:23 am

With all the talk about the Rebound in the Fall ( I believe it will start this summer as social distancing is disregarded) by CDC, Fauci, Gottleib and a host of other epidemiologists from Yale, Harvard, etc, as well as thousands of companies who invested in tel-commuting and committing to this for fiscal 2020- I don't see Fall sports happening let alone classrom attendance in California and other states.
Presidio wrote:
oldtimer wrote:
retiredguy wrote:Again, if you look at the IMHE model it has the last death in California being May 15 as of today. I don't see how you could go 3 full months with no deaths and not have HS sports in the fall. Even if the models are a month off and the last death is June 15, that's 2 full months before HS season starts. While waiting for a vaccine to open society seems foolish to me if the virus slows to a halt over the summer, Pfizer did announce today that they are on track to have millions of vaccines ready by the Fall. They have been working closely with a German Pharma company and it's nice to see the world coming together to provide solutions. Bottom line, my prediction is that there will be school and sports in August even if things look a little different at that time.


Models are great for trying to predict the future, but the reality is that we are still seeing new cases and new fatalities every day in CA, just as with essentially every other state. There were at least 50 deaths reported yesterday in CA, and probably will be a similar number today. The good news is that the rate of infection has been slowing, as has the number of fatalities - but if I were to venture a guess it would be that we are multiple weeks away from no fatalities, and possibly a little longer.

If I read the Governor's message correctly, schools would open first and implement social distancing as much as possible in classrooms, cafeterias, gyms, etc. and probably attempt to keep kids from congregating on campus between classes (good luck with that). The next phase would be to allow sports without spectators, etc. He said the phase allowing schools to open being 'months, rather than weeks, I think, but the phrasing I read made it a little difficult to parse. Given that, I could see athletics being allowed to practice, but also implementing safe measures. For water polo, this would likely mean conditioning and fundamentals, as well as tactical drills where kids keep their distance in lines doing the drills. I could see the recommendation to do no one-on-one (offense and defense at the same time) during this time. Also no games until the phase that allows contests with no spectators. I'd like to hear from someone who read it differently.


I kinda thought Newsom was sending mixed messages. How can kids go back to school, but yet he says sporting events are a long way off? I have no faith in our school districts to provide adequate social distancing on school property. And I feel sorry for the administrators and teachers that have to implement and enforce it. Wasn’t it two weeks ago that Newsom said we need to attain six things to open back up? Have we, but yet he is already starting to relax his standards. Maybe he is because cities like Santa Monica and LA are projecting budget shortfalls of $172m and $575m with this continued economic lockdown.

3963
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Re: likelihood of 2020 fall HS season?

Postby 3963 » Thu May 07, 2020 9:57 pm

My thoughts exactly Cape Fear.

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